Bridging the Cap Rate Gap: How National Restaurant NNN Leases Are Repricing in North Las Vegas — and What Our Dunkin’ Deal Reveals

Bridging the Cap Rate Gap: How National Restaurant NNN Leases Are Repricing in North Las Vegas — and What Our Dunkin’ Deal Reveals

Stefany Lee Sigier

Stefany Lee Sigier

Broker | Retail Leasing

October 29, 2025

If you’ve tracked North Las Vegas restaurant deals lately, you’ve seen the cap rate gap widen—like the stretch between the I-15 morning rush and the quieter industrial edges. National QSRs (Chick-fil-A, Dunkin’) trade at 4–5.5% caps; local operators push 7–10%. It’s not just math—it’s North Las Vegas’s market splitting in real time. I’m Stefany Lee Sigier, retail leasing broker who’s canvassed every pad from Craig Ranch to the Lake Mead corridor. In this environment, smart money doesn’t chase yield. It chases tenants who thrive on our high-traffic, growth-fueled arterials.

We’re deep into 2025, and North Las Vegas’s CRE scene is surging. Population nears 265,000 (up 3.5% YoY), vacancy sits at 6.2%, and investors are rotating into stable NNN assets amid logistics booms. But the cap rate gap signals both opportunity and caution. Here’s the breakdown: local market forces, fresh data, and our April 2025 Dunkin’ close on Lake Mead Blvd—a perfect case of bridging the gap. My advice to clients? Don’t chase the lowest cap. Chase the tenant’s story.

The North Las Vegas Squeeze: Why the Gap Is Widening

Cap rates measure risk vs. return. In NNN leases, nationals with corporate guarantees and 15–20-year terms compress caps to low single digits. Locals? Higher risk, higher caps.

GlobeSt’s October 7, 2025, article nailed the drivers: food/labor inflation, rent-to-sales ratios at 10–12% (vs. 6–8% pre-COVID), and 52% of QSRs missing the $2M sales needed for $200K+ rents. In North Las Vegas, this plays out sharply. Retail vacancy hit 6.2% (Avison Young Q2 2025), but only nationals anchor tight centers like Downtown Summerlin shadows.

Trepp shows public REITs pricing retail at 7.1% caps vs. 5.8% private—a 130-bp spread compressing as capital returns. Nareit reports 95%+ occupancy with 4–5% rent bumps. JPMorgan/MSCI clocks 19% YoY transaction growth, with North Las Vegas retail up 21%. Triple Net Investor calls it “suburban bifurcation”: nationals at 95% occupancy, locals facing 50% insolvency risk.

In North Las Vegas, the gap spans 300–800 bps (Boulder Group). Average NNN restaurant caps: 5.2–6.5% (Westwood Net Lease). It’s a risk signal—watch coverage below 1.3x—but prime for 1031 plays swapping distress for durability in a logistics-hotspot market.

The Lake Mead Dunkin’: Bridging the Gap in Action

April 2025 Close: 2,500 SF Dunkin’ NNN at 1616 E Lake Mead Blvd — $2,514,300 at 5.25% cap. Corporate-guaranteed by Del Taco LLC, subleased to Dunkin’. 12+ year term with options.

Location: Downtown North Las Vegas trade hub, 206,000 daily vehicles on I-15, 47,500 on Lake Mead Blvd, 150,000+ residents within 5 miles. Sales: $1.8M—comfortably above the $1.5M coverage threshold. Buyer: Midwestern 1031 investor escaping office risk.

Comps:

  • Chick-fil-A (nearby infill): 4.4% cap, June 2025
  • In-N-Out (Phoenix edge, similar MSA): 4.2% cap, August 2025

Closed in 45 days, multiple bids. Why? Credit (Del Taco guarantee post-merger), co-tenancy (Walmart shadow-anchor nearby), and traffic (25% morning drive-thru sales, per Placer.ai).

Underwriting focused on corridor stability—90% district occupancy, 3.7% food inflation stress-tested. Exit: 8–9.5% IRR, flip potential at 4.75% in 36 months.

I canvassed pre-listing: timed lines, talked tenants. Data confirmed the story—this wasn’t hype, it was North Las Vegas homework.

Data-Driven Insights: Risks, Rewards, Outlook

Trepp: North Las Vegas private caps at 5.5%, public at 6.9%—140-bp compression. Nationals: 4.7% in CMBS; broader QSRs: 7.8%. Nareit: 95% leased, 4.2% rent spreads. JPMorgan/MSCI: NNN restaurants = 25% of sub-$5M deals.

Risks: Fed stall could trim 4–6% off values (GlobeSt). 48% foodservice insolvency risk (PwC Q2). But nationals hold 1.7x coverage vs. 1.05x locals. Comps like ours delivered 8.5% total returns in 2024.

The gap isn’t a wall—it’s a window. In North Las Vegas, it shows who’s still paying rent through industrial growth.

Takeaways for North Las Vegas Investors & Brokers

  1. Arbitrage the Gap: Buy local distress at 8–10%, carve nationals at 4.5–5.5%. Credit first.
  2. Underwrite Sales & Traffic: Model $1.8M thresholds, 1.3x coverage. Use Placer.ai.
  3. Blend Smart: Nationals + 6.5–7.5% locals = 6–7% yield, lower volatility.
  4. Plan the Exit: Price for 40-bp compression in 24 months.
  5. Canvass First: Talk tenants, clock traffic. Local intel closes deals.

The Lake Mead Dunkin’ wasn’t luck—it was reading North Las Vegas’s growth playbook.
Want to bridge the gap? Let’s talk.